Topic : Would It Really Be Wise For Chelsea & Conte To Build Around Cesc Fabregas?
Headline : Would It Really Be Wise For Chelsea & Conte To Build Around Cesc Fabregas?
Would It Really Be Wise For Chelsea & Conte To Build Around Cesc Fabregas?
The sun has finally set on Chelsea’s disappointing 2015-16 campaign. To put things into perspective Chelsea finished closer to being relegated than to Leicester City. A gap of 31 points saliently depicts the job that Antonio Conte has on his hands upon arrival this summer. Life behind the Iron Curtain, as Carlo Ancelotti intimates, is tough enough with a world-class squad: just how much Conte is allowed to reshape Chelsea remains to be seen.
While many problems exist, it is difficult to look beyond a midfield that lacks in key areas. Notably (and perhaps uncomfortably) it is the performance of Cesc Fabregas that causes significant concern. This is a player many are touting both a) as a future captain and b) someone Conte will look to build around.
Ruud Gullit nailed the issue on Match of the Day after the Spaniard’s performance against AFC Bournemouth was eulogised. Responding to a question from Mark Chapman, Gullit said the following:
“Yes, this was a typical game of two teams with nothing to play for. It’s sunny, it’s nice weather and Fabregas had all the space to do what he is doing best. Passes here, left and right—when you give him all that space, he can play very, very well.”
The problem that Fabregas faces concerns the space that Gullit was speaking about. As teams have adjusted to Fabregas’ deep-lying playmaker role, the space he was originally finding no longer exists. Instead of sitting off the Spaniard and trying to organise into a defensive block, teams now press and harass him at every opportunity. Those quarterback skills and passing range diminish when his pocket collapses. He lacks the burst to create additional time for himself, so often receives the ball in pressurised situations he rarely escapes.
Looking at Fabregas’ scoring contribution correlates with this perception. This metric looks at how many goals or assists someone makes per 90 minutes played (G+Ap90 is the football analytics notation of choice). It is a way to objectively measure the attacking impact of a player. A score of 1 or over is exceptional and reflects that a player is worth 1 goal or assist every game (Gonzalo Higuain’s score of 1.15 is phenomenally good and explains Chelsea’s interest). Over the first half of 2014-15 Fabregas was contributing at an outstanding 0.79G+Ap90. During the second half of 2014-15 he had slipped to 0.48G+Ap90 and at the end of 2015/16 he has dropped further to 0.37G+Ap90.
For context, Fabregas contributed more in a deeper role over the first half of 2014-15 than Mesut Ozil over the entire 2015-16 season (0.74G+Ap90). Fabregas was measurably one of the most dangerous players in the Premier League. However, Fabregas’ impact on Chelsea has waned substantially. The numbers illustrate a picture that has become obvious the more Fabregas plays. Having a vital player in your system so easily negated is troubling.
My contention in both giving Fabregas the armband and this notion that he can become Conte’s Pirlo 2.0 stems from something also covered by Gullit:
“[Fabregas] needs to be better against the teams that are equal to Chelsea. Not like we saw against Paris Saint-Germain, where you have a midfield that can run, who go over you. Fabregas is not a typical guy like this […] if he gets his space, he’s fantastic, but under pressure he can have his doubt.”
Fabregas rarely makes an impact on a game where Chelsea’s opponents are of a high calibre. Looking at matches against the top six (including cup competitions), FC Porto and Paris Saint-Germain, his impact drops to 0.19G+Ap90. These are the strongest sides Chelsea have faced and Fabregas was non-existent. Does a captain go missing in big games or elevate those around him? Chelsea are not at a stage where having a luxury player is conceivable.
If Fabregas’ scoring contribution has diminished significantly, his metronomic passing quality equally appears to have regressed. His raw numbers have all declined from his first season. This could well be the overall quality of Chelsea’s play causing a drop in fluidity, but I would suggest it is again a product of him being more hurried by opponents. Fabregas’ number of minutes played is essentially identical, so comparing the figures makes sense:
| Season | Assists | Avg. Key Passes | Avg. Passes Per Game | Pass Accuracy | Accurate Long Balls | Avg. Through Balls |
| 2015/2016 | 7 | 1.8 | 76.5 | 84% | 5 | 0.4 |
| 2014/2015 | 18 | 2.5 | 80.6 | 85.2% | 5.4 | 0.5 |
Data can be used to paint whatever picture you want and suit any agenda. Chelsea’s quality of possession has regressed this year as a whole, so that factors into the equation. Yet, Fabregas is the player who is meant to link everything together. His presence in the team necessitates him being the conductor. If he cannot play under duress or create space for himself, does he merit a starting place if Chelsea want to move forward this summer?
Defensively Fabregas is willing but unable to make any impact without the ball. Unlike Nemanja Matic, who has seemingly just given up on the concept of tackling, Fabregas is not built to operate as a ball-winner in this Premier League era. Fabregas is not just slow (I recall Kevin De Bruyne gliding past him and Fabregas running in treacle as he “chased” back) but lacks any real athleticism. He is an intelligent footballer, but is outworked, outfought and outmuscled by almost any Premier League-calibre midfielder. The desire is there (and I like that about him), but his physical limitations make him a liability.
There is a danger that Chelsea are building their team around a player unsuited to the direction that Premier League football is heading. This is a player whose effectiveness is diminishing and whose performances against top level opponents have been mediocre at a stretch. The million dollar question regarding Fabregas is whether Antonio Conte looks at the Premier League and sees Fabregas as his regista.
With the pace, power and competitiveness of the league increasing exponentially year-on-year, is it possible that Fabregas gets back to his exceptional early form? Or is he a one trick pony with a trick that is easily nullified? Can Conte build around Fabregas? His performance levels suggest it would be a naïve move, but given his seniority and a lack of suitors Conte will need to find a way to utilise him. Carrying a player who needs such a ridiculous amount of protection seems counter-intuitive, but we hope our Italian can figure something out.
Fabregas is technically one of Chelsea’s best players and aesthetically when he is in full flow there is not a better passer of a football in the league. It is, however, Chelsea’s pursuit of aesthetics over results that has led them to 10th in the Premier League. No one would claim Chelsea’s post-2010 success was due to playing glorious football, but a mentality imbued from the days of Mourinho. Fabregas perhaps embodies this direction and is now being exposed as the collective sum of Chelsea’s parts looks as lightweight as it ever has done. Conte has his work cut out.
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